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BRUSSELS — Washington has “concerns” about EU moves to prioritize buying European weapons, saying that strategy will often fail to offer the cheapest or quickest way to get arms to Ukraine and other states in need, the outgoing U.S. ambassador to NATO argued in an interview.
Julianne Smith’s comments to POLITICO in an exit interview after three years in the job cut to the heart of one of the biggest debates about European plans for what it calls strategic autonomy.
Facing the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, France is leading a push for the EU to become more self-sufficient militarily. Under the European Commission’s industrial strategy on defense unveiled earlier this year, the EU’s 27 countries — 23 of which also belong to NATO — set a goal to spend half of their procurement budget solely on EU arms by 2030 — a target that will rise to 60 percent by 2035.
More transatlanticist EU members such as Sweden and the Netherlands have pushed back. The argument from France’s critics is that Paris is simply protecting its own arms industry without being able to match the volumes and quick deliveries of other supplier countries such as the U.S. and South Korea. Poland, for example, is a major buyer of Korean weapons.
“It’s all quite fascinating and encouraging in that the EU is readying itself to take on a greater share of the burden when it comes to defense and security,” said Smith, who completed her term at NATO on Tuesday. “Does the U.S. have some concerns about the ways in which some of those initiatives are unfolding? Sure.”
Asked to elaborate, she said: “When Europeans do state that they should purchase defense equipment or weapons only within Europe, we ask the question: Given the needs, given countries’ determination to get the best capability and at the best price, wouldn’t you want to allow countries to look to wherever they can find the assets that they need, in the timeline that they need it? And sometimes that takes you to countries that sit outside the European Union.”
“I appreciate what their medium and long-term view is, but I’m not sure that limiting purchases to the EU will really get assistance on the shortest timeline, to either our friends in Ukraine or to the countries across the alliance that have some real acute shortfalls,” she said.
The alliance was also split when Smith arrived in the job in late 2021 with what she thought was indisputable U.S. intelligence detailing Russia’s war preparations on the borders of Ukraine.
Some European countries were skeptical of the findings, and discounted the threat posed by Russia.
“When I joined the conversation in late November and early December, I definitely picked up the fact that not all of the allies around the table were in agreement,” she said.
“We had some countries arguing that this was an age-old tactic on the part of the Russians — they like to posture themselves to be in a very threatening position, and that this was, in fact, no different than what we had seen in years past,” she continued. “Those countries were concluding that Russia would stop short of crossing Ukraine’s borders.”
Much time was wasted. “A lot of the time that I spent in those early weeks was just continuing the conversation, inviting more briefers from Washington, sharing as much intelligence as we could,” she added.
When the war broke out on Feb. 24, 2022, Smith received a call at 3 a.m. in her residence — which she calls her toughest moment at NATO.
“It was hard to get the phone call,” she said. “We were certain that Russia was going to do this, but to actually get the confirmation that it had started really was a gut punch.”
For now, the U.S. is not ready to extend an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO, a key point in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s victory plan. “The alliance has not, to date, reached the point where it is prepared to offer membership or an invitation to Ukraine,” Smith said, adding that “our intent is to keep moving them closer to NATO.”
Despite the widespread concern that Trump could pull away NATO’s security umbrella, Smith — an appointee of President Joe Biden who has nominated her to be an under secretary of state, pending congressional approval — is unfazed.
“For 75 years, U.S. presidents of all political stripes have supported this alliance and committed themselves to providing leadership across the alliance,” Smith said. “I have full faith that the U.S. will continue to play that role going forward, irrespective of what happens on November 5.”